'Syllabus Risk\r'

'BADM 574 †MSTM disguise and venture compend Spring 2013 Lectures: ADV: TR 9:30 am †10:50 am in 2043 BIF GRD: TR 11:00 am †12:20 pm in 2043 BIF last(a) scrutiny: 7-10 pm, Tuesday May 7, 2013 ADV: 2041 BIF GRD: 2043 BIF Instructor: H. Dharma Kwon, Assistant professionalf of Business Administration, College of Business, University of Illinois Of? ce: Email: echo: Of? ce Hours: 365 Wohlers H wholly [ netmail protected] edu 217-333-3522 Tuesdays 2 †4 pm or by appointment Note: When you set email to the instructor, your subject line must(prenominal)(prenominal) comprise the course title. During the of? ce hours, you can shoot the breeze my of? ce.Course Objectives: This course is about using come to make better finalitys. The focus leave behind be on â€Å"handson” role of decimal tools for resultant role of management bothers often involving hazard and uncertainty. Speci? c course objectives: (1) Introduce you to practicable yet sophist icated tools suitable for theoretical account and solving complex managerial problems with unsound outcomes, and (2) improve 1 your skill and fellowship with the use of spreadsheet tools for abstract of management determination problems. We ordain learn to mathematically perplex business decision problems and afford their uninflected skills to certainistic business con school texts.The material cover is useful for executives in all skipper beas of business, including only when non limited to accounting, ? nance, marketing, reading systems, operations management or either other atomic number 18a where it is important to blend in quantifiable abstract with expert original judgment. Prerequisite: This course builds upon some central knowledge of mathematics (probability and statistics) and basic pro? ciency with Microsoft Excel. Required Materials: 1. To purchase the required electronic course tamp down, go to https://create. mcgraw-hill. com/shop/ and essay fo r the stick toing ISBN number: 1121833926.The course pack contains all required shields and some readings. 2. TreePlan, RiskSim, and SensIt ( letd by the MSTM program and downloadable from Compass 2g course website) 3. A laptop and Microsoft Excel 2010 (for Windows) or 2011 (for Mac) installed in your laptop Evaluation Methods: There atomic number 18 four comp unrivallednts to the evaluation: Case abridgment: Minicase epitome: assembly Project: Final psychometric testen: Cases Summary: Roughly every week, individual case compendium assignment(s) are due. We will discuss cases in class, so it is important to read and understand the problems comprise by the cases before coming to the classroom.The abridgment of for each one case must not exceed one page, and it must be cut inted on-line via Compass. (PDF format is strongly preferred). It will be graded on a pass/fail basis. In disposition to pass a case summary assignment, you must show suf? cient evidence that you har bor read the case and understood the magnetic core of it. 2 10% 30% 15% 45% Minicase Analysis: Minicase analyses (problem sets) will be assigned roughly once a week and graded. The minicases are designed to support you learn the mechanics of the methods covered in class and to give you an opportunity to apply the concepts in simple and illustrative contexts.Please poster that minicase assignments require careful interpretation and analysis of the given problems. Points will be deducted if you misunderstand the information given in the case assignments. Discuss your assumptions and clearly explain your quantitative abstract thought. Answers (even correct answers) without logical and quantitative reasoning will not receive credit. Minicase analysis assignments will be posted on Compass. This is sometimes an individual assignment but sometimes a team assignment. late assignments are generally not accepted. Group Project: In the last week of the course, each team will submit an or iginal minicase.The minicase should be based on a real business stake (in the past, in the present, or in the futurity) and must be analyzed using one or more of the methods or concepts discussed in this course. If you’d like, you can also attention deficit disorder other methodology that is not discussed in class. Each case must be of two leaves. In part 1, a business decision problem must be presented with essential information. It can be a ? ctional situation, but it must be based on a real business situation. Part 1 superpower look like one of the inadequate cases that we analyze in this course and the text (excluding exhibits) must not exceed 5 pages typed ingle-spaced in 12 pt font. (See Darden’s cases for the document format). In part 2, the solution to the problem posed in part 1 must be given. When you work the minicase, you should have pedagogic values in mind, i. e. , think of writing a breeding case or an open-book exam for future MSTM students at the University of Illinois. Your submitted work will be evaluated based on how well the decision analytical framework is utilized to exploit a given (hopefully non-trivial) problem (50%) and its pedagogical value or the practicality of the problem (50%).Final Exam: There will be an in-class 3-hour-long open-book, open-notes, and open-laptops ? nal exam. You are NOT allowed to share your laptops with other students or send/receive emails during the ? nal exam. If you miss the ? nal exam without prior discussions with the instructor or without university-authorized emergencies, so you will receive zero credit. 3 Practice Problem Sets: Practice problem sets and their solution keys will be regularly posted on Compass. They are designed to help you understand the material and to provide rehearse using various concepts and techniques discussed in class.These assignments will not be self-contained or graded. However, these problem sets will be helpful for the quiz and the ? nal exam. Some practice problems will be discussed as examples in class. Grades: The ? nal letter grade will be based upon each individual’s level of understanding and learning testify by the weighted cumulative points from all four components shown in Evaluation Methods. laptop and Electronic Communications Policy: You are required to bring your laptop to each class; you will have to use your laptop to download ? es and participate in problem-solving activities in class. You are not allowed to check e-mail or send text messages using your cell anticipate or laptop. Set your cell call off to silent mode. Academic Integrity and delight in Code: You are expected to stockpile ethically throughout the term and follow the norms and guidelines outlined by the University on faculty member integrity. 4 Course Modules: Module 1 Topic translation Cases Module 2 Topic interpretation Cases Module 3 Topic Reading Cases Module 4 Topic Reading Cases Module 5 TopicReading Cases Module 6 Topic Reading Cases Module 7 Topic Reading Cases Value of Information and Control Risk Management Harimann International Optional faculty (if time permitted) Downstream Decisions †Merck & Co. ; International centering Control sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Analysis utilize SensIt CyberLab (A), Supp, (B); Liquid florid Probability Assessment from Historical selective information Probability Distributions Commerce Tavern Simulation Analysis monte Carlo Simulation Using RiskSim George’s Revised Forecast and appendage Sampling and Statistical Inference †sparking plug Shampoo (A) and (B) Decisions under Uncertainty DTP Ch. George’s T-Shirts DTP: Decision Tree Primer (http://www. public. asu. edu/~kirkwood/DAStuff/decisiontrees/index. html) Monte Carlo Simulation Using RiskSim (http://www. treeplan. com/chapters/RiskSim-Guide243. pdf) Sensitivity Analysis Using SensIt (http://www. treeplan. com/chapters/SensIt-Guide-145. pdf) 5\r\n'